Trajectory-Based Analysis for an Informed Action

This article describes a method for analysing human trajectories through a cognitive process of trajectorisation. The method aims at sheding light on the motives of an individual who has committed violent action. Since September the 11st of 2001 attacks in the United States, studies about jihadist radicalisation processes aimed at understanding or even preventing a terrorist act and have mobilised many researchers in the human and social sciences. The challenge of anticipation, as well as the lack of effective analysis methods and tools, appears to be very important, especially because observing an individual is already acting on it and on its behaviour. By adopting a cognitive science approach and an interdisciplinary stance, we have sought to respond to this need of an analysis method for radicalisation trajectories. We will see that there are many models aimed at understanding the process of radicalisation, yet few of them are confronted with reality, and few are adapted to the contingency and the evolving nature of the contexts of production of the radicalisation phenomenon. In this sense, we will present the concept of trajectory, redefined to be adapted to the analysis of radicalisation and enriched with a method that is actionable and replicable. This method of analysis aims at allowing us to highlight recurring actions and behaviours in an individual and to understand their levers, but it is not a predictive method. Nevertheless, we will see how the method could be part of the intelligence cycle and could support the production of enlightening analyses to be able to decide and act.