Collapse, a Simple Question of Time: Jean-Pierre Dupuy Against the French Collapsologists

The article revisits the critique that the French philosopher Jean-Pierre Dupuy, based on the theoretical framework of “enlightened catastrophism”, addressed to the collapsology of Pablo Servigne and Raphaël Stevens. We pay particular attention to the question of the ontological regime and the epistemic status of the catastrophe, as well as to the temporality necessary for its anticipation, i.e. its inscription in the future as a possibility. Jean-Pierre Dupuy criticizes the two French collapsologists for closing off the future by thinking of the catastrophe – reinterpreted as the “collapse of thermo-industrial societies” – under the epistemic regime of certainty, based on the supposed guarantee provided by scientific data and models. Dupuy agrees that the catastrophe, in order to be taken seriously — to constitute a real possibility weighing on our present and our decisions — must appear inevitable and necessary. But it must also retain, like a quantum state, a form of indeterminacy — if not, it would plunge us into a paralyzing fatalism. In this sense, it cannot be a certainty in the manner of a scientific prediction. After presenting (in Parts 1 and 2) Dupuy’s catastrophism and the arguments he puts forward against Servigne & Stevens, we will adopt (in Part 3) a more critical perspective by examining the ontological assumptions underlying the notion of catastrophe — or collapse — employed by both sides. On this basis, we will argue that the dispute between Dupuy and Servigne & Stevens is rooted in a kind of misunderstanding — one that is evident both in the way the two French collapsologists take up Dupuy’s thinking and in his rejection of their approach — and is, to that extent, largely unfounded. Finally, drawing on Gaston Berger’s prospective — a French approach to foresight studies — and his distinction between event and situation, we will outline an alternative model for thinking about collapse and for integrating the perspective of catastrophe into our present.